Bitcoin (BTC) is reporting losses, having failed to beat the key moving average resistance on Monday, however, the technical charts retain to choose a rally to $10,000. Bitcoin bumped into bids in earlier, rising to a four-day high of $9,885, adding credence to Sunday’s bullish outside day candle. In addition, BTC also witnessed a bull flag breakout.
But, the bulls ran out of steam near the 50-day moving average (MA) resistance of $9,920. At the moment, Bitcoin is trading at $9,297, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI). The cryptocurrency has depreciated by 4.59 percent since yesterday.
BTC’s retreat from the high of $9,900 to $8,770 (costs as per Bitfinex) poured cold water on the optimism generated by Sunday’s bullish outside day candle and the bullish triangle breakout. It also came up with the 50-day MA as a robust below the Feb. 25 low of $9,280, marking a failure to hold above the double top neckline.
The momentum research suggests bias too. The 10-day moving average is sloping downwards, and there is a bearish crossover between the ten-day MA and the 50-day MA. So, it appears the odds are stacked against a move above $10,000.
That stated, BTC continues to trade well above the long-legged Doji candle low of $8,342 set on March 9. The candlestick pattern represents bearish exhaustion. So, it is safe to mention the odds of a corrective rally are above 50 percent, as long as BTC remains above $8,342.
The hourly chart below shows a bullish 50-MA and 100-MA crossover. For this reason, the cryptocurrency ought to visit the inverse head-and-shoulders sample neckline resistance seen around $9,850. An upside break could open doors for $11,000 (target as consistent with the measured height method).
The four-hour chart favors a rally to $9,850. An upside break would permit a rally to $10,417 (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from the March 5 excessive of $11,700). A violation there might expose resistance at $11,000 (inverse head-and-shoulders breakout target).
But, the sustainability of gains has been questioned as the weekly chart shows the relative strength index (RSI) has rolled over in favor of the bears. Consequently, only a weekly close above $11,700 could affirm an extended-time period bearish-to-bullish trend change.
Only a daily close ( in line with UTC) under $8,342 (long-legged Doji candle low of March 3) might add credence to the bearish weekly RSI and open doors for a sustained drop to $6,000 (February low) and $4500 (Nov. 12 low).